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Patterns, Perceptions & Possibilities
Decoding UFO Sightings
Overview
Humans have long been captivated by the mysterious objects observed in our skies—dating back as far as 1459 B.C. Recent reports from Congress, the Pentagon, and various intelligence agencies have confirmed that some of these sightings represent genuine, unidentified phenomena. Our team recognized that by sharing open data and conducting evidence-based research, we could contribute to public understanding of an issue that holds widespread fascination. Inspired by NASA’s 2023 UAP Report, which emphasizes the importance of AI and machine learning in identifying rare phenomena, we sought to apply these tools to a century’s worth of UFO data, aiming to uncover patterns, predict future occurrences, and answer the following questions:
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What can we learn about previously documented and recorded UFO sightings?
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What is the trend?
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How do we utilize the trend to predict future sightings?
python geocoding pandas-dataframe plotly data-visualization data-analysis preprocessing predictive-modeling predictive-analytics geovisualization time-series-analysis prophet-model ai-machine-learning
Results, Insights and Next Steps
What can we learn about previously documented and recorded UFO sightings?
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The number of UFO sightings began to increase steadily after 1993, and from 1994 to mid-2014, the most active states (or the states accounting for 90% of the data) were: Arizona, California, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, Texas, Virginia, and Washington.
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Geospatial and Temporal Patterns: By correlating UFO shapes with geographic and temporal data, we see how can specific shapes are more common in particular time periods.
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National Patterns in Frequency: Despite the difference in culture, generation, and location, the frequency of UFOs by shape has followed a similar pattern nationally. As the below plot shows, duration frequency has increased over time but the pattern has remained fairly consistent since the 1940s.
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Regional Patterns in Duration: We can also use our top ten states as a sample to see see similar patterns in shape duration across different regions, with the most consistency along the east coast, and the outlier of the island Hawaii.
Can we use this historical data to predict trends in future UFO sightings?
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From the historical data on shape, location, frequency, and duration of UFO sightings in the US, we were able to build a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomena and predict future sightings. We analyzed the data from the visualizations and compiled the results
How can we use these predictions?
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Comparing the top ten most active states’ trends to the overall national trend could help a UFO enthusiast target specific locations and time frames for peak viewing or analysis. For example, based on this data we can determine that even though the national trend is moving downward, there are still four states (Louisiana, Mississippi, New York, and Washington) that are expected to see increases and two (California and Florida) that are expected to remain rather consistent. The same can be said for UFO shapes, in that despite the overall decline expected, Circular and Triangular shapes are expected to increase and remain consistent, respectively.
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Researchers could focus their efforts towards these states and use the data to plan when to either visit the area in hopes of witnessing a sighting, when to increase data surveillance, and/or how to so in the sense that one may use different tools, spacial views, technology when search for a Light shaped UFOs as opposed to Tringler shaped ones.
